Is the Housing Market Crashing... Again?

What Is Happening to Home Prices Right Now?

Nationally, home prices are up 2.1% compared to a year ago, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. That's a little faster than the pace at the start of the year, though prices only rose 0.3% since the first few months of this year, which suggests the market is settling into a steadier rhythm.

Home prices have gone up every single quarter since 2012. Even with higher rates and cost pressure over the past few years, most of the country has kept climbing.

The strongest growth is concentrated in the Midwest and Northeast, where inventory is tight. The ten states with the biggest year-over-year gains: Alaska (up 8.3%), Vermont (up 7.3%), Hawaii (up 5.8%), Illinois (up 5.6%), West Virginia (up 5.6%), Wisconsin (up 4.8%), North Dakota (up 4.8%), Connecticut (up 4.7%), Rhode Island (up 4.7%), and New Jersey (up 4.6%).

Home prices actually fell in four states over the same year: New Mexico (down 1.2%), Washington (down 0.9%), Colorado (down 0.5%), and California (down 0.2%). A handful of others, including Oregon, North Carolina, Texas, Mississippi, and Arizona, grew less than 1%, many of them the same markets that saw explosive pandemic-era growth and are now cooling off.

Georgia isn't in either top-ten list, which tells you something on its own. We're not seeing the runaway growth of the Midwest, and we're not seeing the pullback hitting parts of the West either. We're somewhere in the steadier middle, which is exactly what I'm seeing on the ground in Peachtree City.

Why are some markets heating up while others cool off?

Two things are driving most of this. First, affordability. Buying costs more than it used to, and that's pricing some buyers out or pushing them to wait, which shows up most in already-expensive markets like California and the Pacific Northwest. Second, housing supply. In a lot of Midwest and Northeast markets, there simply aren't enough homes for sale to meet demand, and tight supply keeps prices climbing or holding steady. That's part of why Illinois and Wisconsin keep showing up near the top of the growth list, while places like Oregon and Arizona, which grew fast during the pandemic, are still working through an affordability hangover.

Which states Are Seeing the Biggest Price Swings?

What Does This Mean for Peachtree City, Fayette County, and Coweta County?

Here's what I'm seeing directly in the MLS today. Across Fayette and Coweta counties combined, there are 1,041 active single-family homes on the market. In Peachtree City specifically, there are 102 active listings, sitting on the market a median of 63.5 days, and 55.9% of those have had at least one price reduction since listing. Zoomed out, Fayette County overall is running a median 66 days on market with 50.5% of active listings price-reduced, and Coweta County is at a median 64 days with 51.2% price-reduced.

What that tells me: over half of active listings in our area have already had to adjust price at least once, and the median home is sitting on the market for roughly two months before going under contract. That's not a crash signal, it's a market that rewards a home priced right from day one. If you're selling to buy your next home in the $650K-plus range, that pricing discipline matters even more, because you're often competing against move-in ready inventory that's been on the market a while and is now open to negotiation.

If you're buying, this same data tells you where you have room to negotiate. A home that's been sitting past that 63 to 66 day median, especially one that's already seen a price cut, is a very different conversation than a home that just hit the market.

No home price story looks the same from one house to the next, even within the same city. Your street, your school district, and your home's condition all play a role in what it's actually worth right now.